On the Road

Isles stand at 15 points through 15 games (5-5-5), on pace for 82 points at the end of the year. The last three seasons, the point cutoff for the playoffs was 93, 94 and 92 points.

If the Isles hope to take that next step, there is only one statistic to look at. Road victories, or lack of them. The Isles current sit at 1-3-3 on the road. You need only look at last season when the Isles finished with a road record of 9-29-3 to see their recent history of road failure.

The Isles start a stretch tomorrow of 8 of the next 9 on the road. 13 of the next 16. This is a critical stretch for a team that has shown some promise early in the season. Can this team string together a few wins on the road? There are some winnable games on the schedule, starting tomorrow against New Jersey, who have not had much home success this season.

BC

To Win or Not To Win?

As of this posting, the Isles find themselves sitting in 7th place in the East after a recent stretch of 5-1-2 hockey. An unlikely scenario just 2 weeks ago. Now there's no telling whether this good play will continue and whether or not we'll be sitting in a playoff position come Thanksgiving or Christmas. Islander fans are no doubt enjoying the team's play. However, I think it's appropriate to ask an important question... is this winning good for the Islanders?

At it's surface, it a strange question. Of course you want to win. Of course you want to make the playoffs. Charles Wang has reiterated the goal every year is the Stanley Cup. But what's better for the long term success of this team? A 6th, 7th or 8th place finish or another top 5 draft pick?

I'd argue it all hinges on the results of any potential playoff series. The organization is in flux on two fronts, the Lighthouse and the team. You've got a young team that still lacks size and scoring. You've also got an arena deal waiting with the future of the franchise on LI in doubt.

The Isles right now are very close to the salary cap floor, so they certainly have room to make a run at big time (and big money) free agents. Of course, we all know our recent success at landing that prized free agent. So, given this is still a young team, another top 5 draft pick is as perfect a fit as can be. You'd be looking at someone who would probably crack the lineup immediately and for entry level money.

You have an owner trying to drum up support for an organization that has had an awfully bad run. Would a successful season and a playoff round win permanently put fans back in the seats for a long time to come? Tough to say. Is a renovated arena enough to get people interested again on it's own even if the team struggles continue another season or two?

I'd argue that a winning team now trumps another top 5 prospect, but barely. Why? Two reasons. The first is selfish. I'd like to see at least a playoff series victory in my adult life, and most certainly while I know the team will be on LI. Second, I think players just want to win. Yes, some just play for money but if you have an organization that is winning, you're more likely to attract a free agent piece of the puzzle, new building or not.

Perhaps some crazy thoughts only 15 games into a season.. and perhaps the future will prove this all to be a moot point.

What do you think, what's better for the team? Vote in the poll.

BC

Paralysis by Analysis

My day job keeps me knee-deep in numbers and spreadsheets all day (yes, despite my prowess with the written word, I only moonlight as an Isles Blogger). So statistics and analysis are in my blood, for better or worse. I'm inclined to dig into the numbers to try to tell a story - even when there might not be one to tell. 13 games is a relatively small subset, but it's what we have to work with. So without further ado, here's some stats (with snarky commentary at no extra charge) for your reading pleasure...

Through 13 games this year, the Isles are 4-4-5 for 13 points. At this same point last season, they were 4-8-1 for 9 points. Same number of wins, 4 additional points. So there's one reason to not be miserable about all the OT losses.

Goals per game is 2.54 (22nd in league), up from 2.42 (29th) for the entire '08-'09 season. In other words, (Tavares + Moulson) > (Comrie + Guerin).

Goals against per game is 3.00 (20th), much improved from our 3.34 (28th) from last year. Again, despite early struggles, (Roloson + Biron) > (McDonald + Danis).

Our PP% is 21.3% (15th), up from 16.9% (23rd), and our PK is a strong 82.4% (8th) versus 79.8% (22nd) last year. Last year we just called it "Teams", this year we can actually refer to it as "Special Teams".

Last year we ranked 28th in the league with a sad .700 winning percentage when leading after 2 periods. We've actually slipped one spot to 29th, but are sporting a pathetic .500 percentage thus far. Think about that - when we step onto the ice in the 3rd period leading, it's a coin flip as far as whether we will win or lose. We are the Brad Lidge of the NHL.

Next up for the Islanders, Dwayne Roloson faces his former team while Mike Comrie's flu bug forces him to practice his toe-drag from home.

MC

Road Warriors

A great win last night against the Rangers. Unquestionably the Isles strongest 60 minutes of the year thus far, in all aspects of their game. They rolled 4 strong lines, were aggressive on the forecheck, responsible defensively, and took much higher-percentage shots than we've seen thus far this season. One can't help but wonder where we'd be if we played with that type of intensity and responsibility all season. At least it gives us some hope.

The next 3 games are very important. First, we need to see if we can carry some momentum from this great performance. But more importantly, 2 of the next 3 games are at the Coliseum where the Islanders are a respectable 2-2-2. After Monday's home game versus Edmonton, the team plays 9 of their next 10 on the road (0-2-3 so far). The Islanders can't afford to fall victim to their quirky schedule. If they don't find a way to win on the road and match the home team's intensity, this season will officially be over before Thanksgiving.

If we can get through this stretch successfully (let's define success as 4+ wins in those 10 games), the reward comes in December. From Dec 12 thru 29, the Isles play 10 straight games in NY (8 at Coliseum, 2 at MSG). If we can stay in the mix until then, hopefully the crowds will come and the Coliseum can provide a true home-ice advantage through that long home stand.

Next up for the Isles are two division leaders - at Washington then home versus Buffalo. Good tests for a team that, at least for one night, looked like they are ready to play with the big boys.

MC

Polishing the Turd

We're all too familiar with the epic collapses and shootout fails that have brought the Islanders to their current position in the cellar of the Atlantic with a 1-4-5 record. I won't insult anyone's intelligence and pretend that we should be anything but borderline miserable at this point. But the purpose of this post is to try to put a positive spin on things. Play a little "what-if" to put things in a slightly different perspective.

First and foremost, we need to remember, it's VERY early in the season. As Chris(topher) Botta recently pointed out (sarcastically?), the Isles are only 4 points out of a playoff spot. To put that in a language you can understand, we are a mere 4 OT losses from the playoffs! But seriously, it's so early in the season that we can have but one regulation win and still be only 4 points out of the 8-spot. If this were March and we were 4 points out of a playoff spot, we'd be ecstatic. In October/November, a good week or two can catapult you from the basement to a home-ice-in-the-first-round slot. Again, the point is it's very early and there's plenty of time to get it going.

But that begs the question - does this team have the ability to string together some wins? I think the answer is yes, and we only need to look at the last 10 games to support that. 3 of their 4 regulation losses were by 3+ goals and they were badly outplayed in each. So there's no rewriting history on those. Their only other regulation loss (against LA) was a 1-goal game, but every team is going to have a bunch of those during the course of a season. So we'll ignore that as well. It's in the 5 OT losses that, a different bounce here or there, could change the whole complexion of the season.

Let's pretend the collapse in Boston never happened. Then let's assume of the remaining 4 games we lost in OT or shootout, we split instead. Here's our record:

4-4-2, 10 points

We'd be in the #10 spot, one point behind Boston and Philadelphia for a playoff spot. I don't think there would be one fan in Islanders country that would be complaining. Sure, we are cursed and all those bad things DID happen. But it really isn't too far fetched to imagine a scenario where we are sitting with a .500 record and 10 pts at this stage of the game.

I feel like this team is capable of .500 hockey this season. A win tonight and we are only 2 games under with a gazillion left to play. I'm not saying it will happen. But it can.

Now, back to reality...

MC